2025 Southern California (SoCal) Earthquake Supply Chain Risk And Vulnerability Analysis

Abstract

This report presents a comprehensive assessment of private-sector supply chain risks and vulnerabilities associated with a magnitude 7.8 San Andreas Fault earthquake affecting Southern California. Conducted by the Supply Chain Analysis Network (SCAN) for FEMA, the study examines essential commodity systems, including food and agriculture, water, fuel, electric power, and intermodal freight, that serve approximately 29.8 million people across Southern and Northern California. Using a “blue-sky” baseline analysis combined with scenario-based seismic impact modeling, the report identifies critical infrastructure concentrations, system interdependencies, and likely disruptions to commodity flows following a catastrophic event. Findings emphasize that no single entity can address response and early recovery challenges alone, underscoring the necessity of strategic prioritization, public-private coordination, and advance relationship-building with supply chain operators. The analysis further outlines policy and operational levers, such as regulatory waivers, mutual aid, and targeted access to infrastructure, that can accelerate the restoration of flows. Overall, the report positions shared situational awareness and adaptive decision-making as central capabilities for mitigating cascading supply chain failures in large-scale seismic disasters.