MIDAS : minor incident decision analysis software

Abstract

MIDAS is the minor incident decision analysis software that acts as an advisory tool for plant decision makers and operators to analyze the available decision alternatives for resolving minor incidents. The minor incidents dealt with in this thesis include non- safety related component failure, equipment maintenance, inspection or testing. MIDAS implements the risk-informed decision analysis methodology that uses multi- attribute utility theory (MAUT) and formal decision-making models that was developed for nuclear power plants. MIDAS integrates the theory, practical models and the graphical user interfaces for analysts to quickly obtain the insight regarding the performance of decision options and driving factors. To be able to deal with the inherent diversity of scenarios and decision options, a well-defined option models and modular calculation structure were constructed in MIDAS. In addition, MIDAS provides the functions of performing sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to take into account the inherent model and parameter uncertainties in decision option evaluation. Two case studies are performed to demonstrate the application of MIDAS in nuclear power plant risk-informed incident management. The insight obtained from the analysis results of case studies reveals that for nuclear power plant incident management, risk usually is not the most important concern. Cost and external attention are usually the dominant deciding factors in decision-making. However, in fact, the safety performance of each option is reflected in terms of the cost and external attention.