Potential airport capacity gains from the optimal assignment of aircraft types to runways

Abstract

Large commercial airports worldwide still experience demand in excess of capacity which leads to considerable delays. As an operational solution to alleviate delays, this thesis presents a model that aims at increasing runway arrival capacity by optimally allocating aircraft to runways such that the overall inter-arrival time between successive aircraft is minimized and the total capacity thus maximized. A mathematical model is presented that consists of two parts: an optimization based on analytic formulations and deterministic assumptions, followed by a Monte Carlo simulation using the results from the first part to account for the probabilistic nature of some variables. If taken by themselves, the optimization results appear very promising and might also suggest the advisability of developing an algorithm that incorporates our optimal runway allocation scheme into existing air traffic automation systems. However, the simulation suggests that the benefits obtained from the optimization scheme are reduced considerably when stochasticity is taken into consideration. In light of all the practical factors and model simplifications we have identified and especially in view of the of the gain reduction under probabilistic assumptions-we conclude that the expected capacity benefits from implementing this optimization model may be quite negligible at most major airports. Thus, an effort to implement the model on a wide scale cannot be recommended, based on the findings of this thesis. Exceptions may exist at airports that have unusually non-homogeneous traffic mixes.