Quantitative analysis of the stability of Japan's energy system

Abstract

In order to measure Japan's energy system's stability under an uncertain future availability of energy resources, we built a mathematical programming / economic equilibrium model based upon linear programming techniques. Future uncertainty is expressed as random variables with a given probability distribution, and the economic equilibrium point is obtained by iterative convergent computation. Numerical experiments show an optimal energy supply-demand structure with equilibrium prices of primary energy resources at the future target year, then we obtain supply stability and instability probabilities of our energy system. From shadow price analysis of an optimal solution our energy policy is quantitatively evaluated.