Executive decision making processes and outcomes : structure and robustness

Abstract

Uncertainty in the decision making environment complicates the decision making process because future events may change the effect of a particular decision or series of decisions. This thesis explores the possibility of applying robust engineering design techniques to the decision making process in order to limit the effects of changing circumstances. The intent is to identify solutions that will reduce the variation in the outcome of decisions that are made across many projects by analyzing projects that have been executed at the Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) over the past several years. A framework to relate past performance to match the requirements of experiments in a Design of Experiments (DOE) analysis is developed. The approach views factors that are considered in making decisions as controllable elements and factors that unexpectedly affect the outcome of the decisions as noise. The resulting framework is then organized such that the data can be analyzed using the Taguchi approach to DOE, which has been successfully used for analyzing engineering design and manufacturing processes. The analysis approach considers the robustness of the outcome based on the factors used to make the decisions about the various projects that have been conducted at DFRC over the past six years. The decision process performance is analyzed and recommendation are made to improve the performance of the decision making process at DFRC. The analysis indicates that projects providing large increases in technical knowledge were the most influential in reducing the effects from changes in budget and staffing resources that were beyond the control of the decision makers.