Epidemic modeling techniques for smallpox

Abstract

Infectious disease models predict the impact of outbreaks. Discrepancies between model predictions stem from both the disease parameters used and the underlying mathematics of the models. Smallpox has been modeled extensively in recent years to determine successful response guidelines for a future outbreak. Five models, which range in fidelity, were created for this thesis in an attempt to reveal the differences inherent in the mathematical techniques used in the models. The disease parameters were standardized across all models. Predictions for various outbreak scenarios are given, and the strengths and weaknesses of each modeling technique are discussed. The mixing strategy used greatly affects the predictions of the models. The results gathered indicate that mass vaccination should be considered as a primary response technique in the event of a future smallpox outbreak.