Cost-benefit analysis of aircraft design for environment using a fleet perspective and real options

Abstract

Traditional multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) approaches do not examine the costs associated with damage due to environmental factors and are usually implemented to examine one aircraft. The Environmental Design Space (EDS), an MDO tool, needs cost models that can incorporate the damage cost benefits of environmentally driven design changes both on a single aircraft and throughout a model fleet. It is important that the EDS framework also has a capability to assess the impact of future environmental technologies. Operating cost and fleet representation modules are created for the Environmental Design Space to calculate aggregated fleet effects for operating cost and emissions for current and evolving aircraft fleet. A case study involving a cost-benefit analysis of a NOx stringency mandate is conducted using the modules to assess the limitations of EDS. To assess the impacts of future environmental technologies, a real options framework is created using financial theory and applied to an engineering context. This framework is then used to derive a current monetary value for the option to include a noise reduction technology, trailing edge fan blowing, into an aircraft system.

(cont.) Examining the trade-offs of the three differently designed replacement aircraft, the operating cost and fleet representation modules show that the minimum NOx aircraft has less of a cost-benefit fleet impact than that of the minimum fuel burn and minimum take-off weight. These results demonstrate a major trade-off between performance and environmental factors. The operating cost and fleet representation modules along with EDS assist in the design of aviation environmental policies by examining scenario fleet impacts. The real options framework using Monte Carlo software calculates the option value of incorporating new technology into the fleet.