Browsing Center for Global Change Science by Title
Now showing items 248-267 of 337
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Parameterization of urban sub-grid scale processes in global atmospheric chemistry models
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1997-07)We have derived a parameterization consisting of a set of analytical expressions that approximate the predictions by the CIT Urban Airshed Model for the net export to the environment (i.e., effective emissions) of several ... -
Past and Future Effects of Ozone on Net Primary Production and Carbon Sequestration Using a Global Biogeochemical Model
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2003-10)Exposure of plants to ozone inhibits photosynthesis and therefore reduces vegetation production and carbon sequestration. Simulations with the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) for the historical period (1860-1995) show ... -
Permafrost, Lakes, and Climate-Warming Methane Feedback: What is the Worst We Can Expect?
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2012-05)Permafrost degradation is likely enhanced by climate warming. Subsequent landscape subsidence and hydrologic changes support expansion of lakes and wetlands. Their anaerobic environments can act as strong emission sources ... -
Potential Climatic Impacts and Reliability of Very Large-Scale Wind Farms
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2009-06)Meeting future world energy needs while addressing climate change requires large-scale deployment of low or zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission technologies such as wind energy. The widespread availability of wind power has ... -
Potential Direct and Indirect Effects of Global Cellulosic Biofuel Production on Greenhouse Gas Fluxes from Future Land-use Chage
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2012-03)The production of cellulosic biofuels may have a large influence on future land emissions of greenhouse gases. These effects will vary across space and time depending on land-use policies, trade, and variations in ... -
Potential Land Use Implications of a Global Biofuels Industry
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2008-03)In this paper we investigate the potential production and implications of a global biofuels industry. We develop alternative approaches to the introduction of land as an economic factor input, in value and physical terms, ... -
The Potential Wind Power Resource in Australia: A New Perspective
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2014-02)Australia is considered to have very good wind resources, and the utilization of this renewable energy resource is increasing. Wind power installed capacity increased by 35% from 2006 to 2011 and is predicted to account ... -
Primary aluminum production : climate policy, emissions and costs
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1998-12)Climate policy regarding perfluorocarbons (PFCs) may have a significant influence on investment decisions in the production of primary aluminum. This work demonstrates an integrated analysis of the effectiveness and likely ... -
Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (without Policy) and Climate Parameters
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2009-01)The MIT Integrated Global System Model is used to make probabilistic projections of climate change from 1861 to 2100. Since the model's first projections were published in 2003 substantial improvements have been made to ... -
Probabilistic Projections of 21st Century Climate Change over Northern Eurasia
(MIT Joint Program, 2013-07-18)We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that ... -
Probabilistic projections of the future climate for the world and the continental USA
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2017-09)In this paper, we study possible impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on the 21st century climate on the continental USA using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework. Climate change ... -
Process Modeling of Global Soil Nitrous Oxide Emissions
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2011-09-01)Nitrous oxide is an important greenhouse gas and is a major ozone-depleting substance. To understand and quantify soil nitrous oxide emissions, we expanded the Community Land Model with prognostic Carbon and Nitrogen ... -
A Process-based Analysis of Methane Exchanges Between Alaskan Terrestrial Ecosystems and the Atmosphere
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2003-11)We developed and used a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to study how rates of methane (CH4) emissions and consumption in Alaskan soils have changed over the past century in response to observed changes ... -
The Prospects for Coal-To-Liquid Conversion: A General Equilibrium Analysis
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2011-05)We investigate the economics of coal-to-liquid (CTL) conversion, a polygeneration technology that produces liquid fuels, chemicals, and electricity by coal gasification and Fischer-Tropsch process. CTL is more expensive ... -
Prospects for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles in the United States and Japan: A General Equilibrium Analysis
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2009-04)The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) may offer a potential near term, low carbon alternative to today's gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles. A representative vehicle technology that runs on electricity in addition ... -
Protection of Coastal Infrastructure under Rising Flood Risk
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2013-03)The 2005 hurricane season was particularly damaging to the United States, contributing to significant losses to energy infrastructure—much of it the result of flooding from storm surge during hurricanes Katrina and Rita. ... -
Quantifying Regional Economic Impacts of CO2 Intensity Targets in China
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2012-09-01)To address rising energy use and CO2 emissions, China’s leadership has enacted energy and CO2 intensity targets under the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015), which are defined at both the national and provincial levels. ... -
Quantifying the Likelihood of Regional Cimate Change: A hybridized Approach
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2011-09)The growing need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to climate change calls for increased capability in climate projections: the quantification of the likelihood of regional outcomes and the representation ... -
Quantifying the uncertainty in climate predictions
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1998-07) -
Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties using recent climate observations
(MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2001-07)We apply the optimal fingerprint detection algorithm to three independent diagnostics of the recent climate record and derive joint probability density distributions for three uncertain properties of the climate system. ...
