Browsing Center for Global Change Science by Issue Date

Now showing items 1-20 of 337

    • Uncertainty in climate change policy analysis 

      Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1994-12)
      Achieving agreement about whether and how to control greenhouse gas emissions would be difficult enough even if the consequences were fully known. Unfortunately, choices must be made in the face of great uncertainty, about ...

    • Description and validation of the MIT version of GISS 2-D model 

      Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1995-06)
      A significant number of long-term climate change simulations are to be carried out in the Integrated Framework of the MIT Global Change Joint Program. Since Global Circulation Models (GCMs) require an enormous amount of ...

    • Responses of primary production and total carbon storage to changes in climate and atmospheric CO₂ concentration 

      Xiao, Xiangming.; Kicklighter, David W.; Melillo, Jerry M.; McGuire, A. David.; Stone, Peter H.; e.a. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1995-10)
      The authors used the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM, version 4.0) to estimate global responses of annual net primary production (NPP) and total carbon storage to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2, driven by the ...

    • Application of the probabilistic collocation method for an uncertainty analysis of a simple ocean model 

      Webster, Mort David.; Tatang, Menner A.; McRae, Gregory J. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1996-01)
      This paper presents the probabilistic collocation method as a computationally efficient method for performing uncertainty analysis on large complex models such as those used in global climate change research. The collocation ...

    • World energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions : 1950-2050 

      Schmalensee, Richard.; Stoker, Thomas M.; Judson, Ruth A. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1996-04)
      Emissions of carbon dioxide from combustion of fossil fuels, which may contribute to long-term climate change, are projected through 2050 using reduced form models estimated with national-level panel data for the period ...

    • Relative role of changes in CO₂ and climate to equilibrium responses of net primary production and carbon storage of the terrestrial biosphere 

      Xiao, Xiangming.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Kicklighter, David W.; McGuire, A. David.; Stone, Peter H.; e.a. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1996-06)
      In a partial factorial model experiment, we used the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM, version 4.0) to assess the relative roles of changes in CO2, temperature, precipitation and cloudiness in equilibrium responses of ...

    • CO₂ emissions limits: economic adjustments and the distribution of burdens 

      Jacoby, Henry D.; Eckaus, Richard S.; Ellerman, A. Denny.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Reiner, David M.; e.a. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1996-07)
      Policies under consideration within the Climate Convention would impose CO₂ controls on only a subset of nations. A model of economic growth and emissions, coupled to an analysis of the climate system, is used to explore ...

    • Global warming projections : sensitivity to deep ocean mixing 

      Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1996-09)
      The climatological impact of increases in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, despite being a subject of intensive study in recent years, is still very uncertain. One major uncertainty affecting possible climate ...

    • Net primary production of terrestrial ecosystems in China and its equilibrium response to changes in climate and atmospheric CO₂ concentration 

      Xiao, Xiangming.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Pan, Yude.; McGuire, A. David.; e.a. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1996-10)
      The Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM, version 4.0) was used to estimate net primary production (NPP) in China for contemporary climate and NPP responses to elevated CO₂ and climate changes projected by three atmospheric ...

    • What does stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations mean? 

      Jacoby, Henry D.; Schmalensee, Richard.; Reiner, David M. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1996-11)
      The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model is applied to an exploration of the national emissions obligations that would be required to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations at levels now under active ...

    • Greenhouse policy architectures and institutions 

      Schmalensee, Richard. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1996-11)
      This paper discusses the design of efficient environmental policies in general and reviews omissions and shortcomings of the presentation of the economic dimensions of climate change in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ...

    • What drives deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon? : Evidence from satellite and socioeconomic data. 

      Pfaff, Alexander Strickland Putalik. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1996-12)
      This paper analyzes the determinants of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. From a model of optimal land use, it derives and then estimates a deforestation equation on country-level data for the period 1978 to 1988. The ...

    • Economic assessment of CO₂ capture and disposal 

      Eckaus, Richard S.; Jacoby, Henry D.; Ellerman, A. Denny.; Leung, Wing-Chi.; Yang, Zili. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1996-12)
      A multi-sector multi-region general equilibrium model of economic growth and emissions is used to explore the conditions that will determine the market penetration of CO2 capture and disposal technology.

    • A flexible climate model for use in integrated assessments 

      Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1997-03)

    • Transient climate change and potential croplands of the world in the 21st century 

      Xiao, Xiangming.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Kicklighter, David W.; McGuire, A. David.; Tian, Hanqin.; e.a. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1997-05)
      A cropland distribution model, which is based on climate, soil and topography, is applied to estimate the area and spatial distribution of global potential croplands under contemporary climate and to assess the effect of ...

    • Joint implementation : lessons from Title IV's voluntary compliance programs 

      Atkeson, Erica. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1997-06)

    • Parameterization of urban sub-grid scale processes in global atmospheric chemistry models 

      Calbó, Josep.; Pan, Wen Wei.; Webster, Mort David.; Prinn, Ronald G.; McRae, Gregory J. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1997-07)
      We have derived a parameterization consisting of a set of analytical expressions that approximate the predictions by the CIT Urban Airshed Model for the net export to the environment (i.e., effective emissions) of several ...

    • Same science, differing policies : the saga of global climate change 

      Skolnikoff, Eugene B. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1997-08)
      This paper provides a comparative analysis of the economic and political interests influencing the progress of climate negotiation. The primary focus is on the U.S., France, Germany, U.K., Belgium, Netherlands, and the ...

    • Needed : a realistic strategy for global warming 

      Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Schmalensee, Richard. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1997-08)
      Through a brief look at the science and economics of climate, the authors show that if climate change turns out to be a serious threat, an effective response will require a substantial and very long-term global effort. ...

    • Uncertainty in the oceanic heat and carbon uptake and their impact on climate projections 

      Sokolov, Andrei P.; Wang, Chien.; Holian, Gary L.; Stone, Peter H.; Prinn, Ronald G. (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 1997-09)
      The impact of uncertainty in the rate of heat and carbon uptake by the deep ocean on climate response to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations is studied by means of numerical simulations with the two-dimensional ...