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dc.contributorWebster, Mort David.en_US
dc.contributorForest, Chris Eliot.en_US
dc.contributorReilly, John M.en_US
dc.contributorBabiker, Mustafa H.M.en_US
dc.contributorKicklighter, David W.en_US
dc.contributorMayer, Monika.en_US
dc.contributorPrinn, Ronald G.en_US
dc.contributorSarofim, Marcus C.en_US
dc.contributorSokolov, Andrei P.en_US
dc.contributorStone, Peter H.en_US
dc.contributorWang, Chien.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2003-10-24T14:55:33Z
dc.date.available2003-10-24T14:55:33Z
dc.date.issued2002-12en_US
dc.identifier.otherno. 95en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a95en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/3552
dc.descriptionAbstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Website. (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)en_US
dc.descriptionIncludes bibliographical references (p. 19-21).en_US
dc.description.abstractTo aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the uncertainty in climate projections under two different policy scenarios. This study illustrates an internally consistent uncertainty analysis of one climate assessment modeling framework, propagating uncertainties in both economic and climate components, and constraining climate parameter uncertainties based on observation. We find that in the absence of greenhouse gas emissions restrictions, there is a one in forty chance that global mean surface temperature change will exceed 4.9 degrees C by the year 2100. A policy case with aggressive emissions reductions over time lowers the temperature change to a one in forty chance of exceeding 3.2 degrees C, thus reducing but not eliminating the chance of substantial warming.en_US
dc.format.extent21 p.en_US
dc.format.extent324584 bytes
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherMIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Changeen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesReport no. 95en_US
dc.rights.urihttp://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a95en_US
dc.subject.lccQC981.8.C5.M58 no.95en_US
dc.titleUncertainty analysis of climate change and policy responseen_US


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