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dc.contributorWebster, Mort David.en_US
dc.contributorBabiker, Mustafa H.M.en_US
dc.contributorMayer, Monika.en_US
dc.contributorReilly, John M.en_US
dc.contributorHarnisch, Jochen.en_US
dc.contributorHyman, Robert C.en_US
dc.contributorSarofim, Marcus C.en_US
dc.contributorWang, Chien.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2003-10-24T14:55:56Z
dc.date.available2003-10-24T14:55:56Z
dc.date.issued2001-08en_US
dc.identifier.otherno. 79en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a79en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/3566
dc.descriptionAbstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)en_US
dc.descriptionIncludes bibliographical references (p. 23-25).en_US
dc.description.abstractFuture global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Results are simulated through 2100 for carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N₂O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), ammonia (NH3) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs). We construct mean and upper and lower 95% emissions scenarios (available from the authors at 1 degree by 1 degree latitude-longitude grid). Using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), we find a temperature change range in 2100 of 0.9 to 4.0 degrees C, compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios that result in a range of 1.3 to 3.6 degrees C when simulated through MIT IGSM.en_US
dc.format.extent25 p.en_US
dc.format.extent678825 bytes
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherMIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Changeen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesReport no. 79en_US
dc.rights.urihttp://mit.edu/globalchange/www/abstracts.html#a79en_US
dc.subject.lccQC981.8.C5.M58 no.79en_US
dc.titleUncertainty in emissions projections for climate modelsen_US


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