The effects on developing countries of the Kyoto Protocol and CO₂ emissions trading

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of the Kyoto Protocol on developing economies using marginal abatement curves generated by MIT's Emissions Prediction and Policy Assessment model (EPPA). In particular, the paper addresses how developing countries are affected by the scope of CO2 emissions trading, by various limitations that Annex I countries might place on emissions trading, by the nature of the Clean Development Mechanism, and by changes in the international trade flows in conventional goods and services. In general, it is found that developing countries benefit from emissions trading, both from the new export opportunities and by the lesser distortion of Annex I economies. This effect is particularly pronounced for energy exporting countries since Annex I countries are able to substitute cheaper reductions of coal emissions in developing countries for more expensive reductions of oil emissions within Annex I. The paper also highlights the implications of the apparent inelastic demand for tradable permits from non-Annex I countries and the conflict between revenue maximization and other goals assigned to the Clean Development Mechanism.