Essays on transition challenges for alternative propulsion vehicles and transportation systems

Abstract

Technology transitions require the formation of a self-sustaining market through alignment of consumers' interests, producers' capabilities, infrastructure development, and regulations. In this research I develop a broad behavioral dynamic model of the prospective transition to alternative fuel vehicles. In Essay one I focus on the premise that automobile purchase decisions are strongly shaped by cultural norms, personal experience, and social interactions. To capture these factors, I examine important social processes conditioning alternative vehicle diffusion, including the generation of consumer awareness through feedback from driving experience, word of mouth and marketing. Through analysis of a simulation model I demonstrate the existence of a critical threshold for the sustained adoption of alternative technologies, and show how the threshold depends on behavioral, economic and physical system parameters. Word-of-mouth from those not driving an alternative vehicle is important in stimulating diffusion. Further, I show that marketing and subsidies for alternatives must remain in place for long periods for diffusion to become self-sustaining.

(cont.) Results are supported with an analysis of the transition to the horseless carriage at the turn of the 19th century. In the second Essay I explore the co-evolutionary interdependence between alternative fuel vehicle demand and the requisite refueling infrastructure. The analysis is based on a dynamic behavioral model with an explicit spatial structure. I find, first, a bi-stable, low demand equilibrium with urban adoption clusters. Further, the diffusion of more fuel efficient vehicles, optimal for the long run, is less likely to succeed, illustrating the existence of trade-offs between the goals of the early stage transition, and those of the long-run equilibrium. Several other feedbacks that significantly influence dynamics including, supply and demand, and supply-coordination behaviors, are discussed. In Essay three I examine how technology learning and spillovers impact technology trajectories of competing incumbents - hybrid and radical entrants. I develop a technology lifecycle model, with an emphasis on technology heterogeneity. In the model, spillovers can flow to the market leader and can be asymmetric across technologies. find that the existence of learning and spillover dynamics greatly increases path dependence. Interaction effects with other feedbacks, such as scale economies, are very strong. Further, superior radical technologies may fail, even when introduced simultaneously with inferior hybrid technologies.

(cont.) I find that the existence of learning and spillover dynamics greatly increases path dependence. Interaction effects with other feedbacks, such as scale economies, are very strong. Further, superior radical technologies may fail, even when introduced simultaneously with inferior hybrid technologies.