A framework for analyzing biopharmaceutical product introduction in an emerging market

Abstract

Biopharmaceutical companies are under constant pressure to deliver double-digit growth. In traditional markets such as the U.S., Japan, and the European Union growth is stagnant, and profit margins are falling due to increased price pressure from governments. As a result companies are looking to expand their customer bases. They see such opportunities in the emerging markets of China, India, and Eastern Europe where growth rates are in the double-digits. However, there are risks and uncertainties associated with expansion into emerging markets. These countries lack the regulatory systems and contract-enforcing mechanisms that most companies are used to operating under. In addition, pricing pressure from patients, governments, and healthcare organizations increases attention to the cost of goods. This document develops a framework for analyzing the potential for introducing a pharmaceutical product into a predetermined emerging market. The framework includes three steps. The first step is market assessment. The second step focuses on the supply chain. Information from market research is used to propose and evaluate alternative operational structures, to reduce costs, and to facilitate market entry.

(cont.) The third step involves financial modeling using Monte Carlo Simulation to account for uncertainty in the information collected from the market assessment and supply chain analysis. The framework is applied in a case study which involves the Genzyme Corporation and evaluates the Chinese market for its cholesterol lowering drug, Cholestagel.