A reduced-form statistical climate model suitable for coupling with economic emissions projections

Abstract

In this work, we use models based on past data and scientific analysis to determine possible future states of the environment. We attempt to improve the equations for temperature and greenhouse gas concentration used in conjunction with the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model or for independent climate analysis based on results from the more complex MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM). The functions we generate should allow a software system to approximate the environmental variables from the policy inputs in a matter of seconds. At the same time, the estimates should be close enough to the exact values given by the IGSM to be considered meaningful.