Investment dynamics and the timeliness properties of accounting numbers

Abstract

This paper examines the properties of accounting numbers using a real investment framework that predicts asymmetric timeliness of both investment and its outcomes (i.e. sales, earnings and operating cash flows) even in the absence of conservative accounting. In particular, I predict and find that firms are able to react more quickly to negative economic shocks (by cutting investment and employment) than to positive economic shocks (where there is a lag in implementing new investments or expanding employment). Next, I create the link between real investment and operating decisions and accounting by examining properties of sales and cash sales. I focus on analyzing sales and cash sales because real investment and operating activities are likely to have a great impact on the timeliness and time-series properties of these variables. I hypothesize that due to the slow investment adjustment to positive shocks, sales will exhibit a relatively stronger sensitivity to negative versus positive shocks. I also predict that sales will reflect a positive shock over time (positive autocorrelation) whereas a negative shock will be reflected in sales in a more immediate and permanent fashion. I find strong empirical support for both predictions. Cross-sectional tests lend further support to my hypothesis that real operating and investment activities play a crucial role in determining the observed properties of accounting numbers.