The design of a decision support system for supply chain risk management

Abstract

Where can things go wrong? This deceptively simple question has fascinated mankind since time immemorial. The question in fact forms the basis of risk management. The focus of this thesis is the risk management of supply chains. Any factor that is likely to disrupt the procurement, production, or delivery of a good or a service constitutes a supply chain risk. As several case studies from around the world indicate [4], disruptions to an enterprise's supply chain could be catastrophic to business, human safety, market competitiveness, and even national and international economies. It is therefore imperative that an a priori assessment of the factors that pose a risk to the supply chain be conducted and contingency plans developed at strategic, tactical, and operational levels to monitor and mitigate those risks. This thesis will identify all major risks that are likely to disrupt a supply chain; identify the data needed to continuously monitor each risk; suggest a synthesized framework for managing supply chain risks; propose different models to quantify risks and asses their consequences; and suggest guidelines for model use. Further, it will present a case study based on the models developed and propose a decision support system based on these models and necessary data. This work will help enterprises develop risk management plans at the strategic, tactical and operational levels, along various time horizons, and be able to execute them when supply chain risks are encountered. The target audience for this thesis includes a broad spectrum of supply chain professionals, consultants, supervisors, top executives, risk professionals, managers, software entrepreneurs, academicians, and students.