Alternative fuels : how can aviation cross the "Valley of Death"

Abstract

Aviation has used petroleum-derived fuels for over 100 years. With the rapidly rising price of oil and concerns about supply, the military and the commercial airlines are fostering the development of an alternative aviation fuel industry. In the U.S., coal, oil shale and biomass offer great promise as alternatives to petroleum for the production of aviation fuels. For the alternative fuel to be viable, the fuel must be price competitive, offer environmental benefits compared to petroleum, and must be qualified and certified for use in aviation. This thesis explores the barriers and risks associated with the technology adoption life cycle for alternative aviation fuels as viewed through the lenses of the technology developer, the early adopter, the early majority user, and the financial community. The challenges related to crossing the "Valley of Death" between technology development and deployment, and bridging the "Chasm" between the early adopters and the early majority of users are explored and a series of evaluation frameworks, tools, models, and recommendations are presented. The suggestions and recommendations provide potential actions that the military and the civil aviation sector could implement to reduce the risks and barriers for an alternative aviation fuel industry to commence and be sustainable both financially and environmentally.