The long-run evolution of energy prices

Abstract

I examine the long-run behavior of oil, coal, and natural gas prices, using up to 127 years of data, and address the following questions: What does over a century of data tell us about the stochastic dynamics of price evolution, and how it should be modeled? Can models of reversion to stochastically fluctuating trend lines help us forecast prices over horizons of 20 years or more? And what do the answers to these questions tell us about investment decisions that are dependent on prices and their stochastic evolution?