MIT Libraries logoDSpace@MIT

MIT
View Item 
  • DSpace@MIT Home
  • Center for Global Change Science
  • Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Reports
  • View Item
  • DSpace@MIT Home
  • Center for Global Change Science
  • Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Reports
  • View Item
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

The Cost of Climate Policy in the United States

Author(s)
Morris, Jennifer F.; Jacoby, Henry D.; Reilly, John M.; Paltsev, Sergey
Thumbnail
DownloadMITJPSPGC_Rpt173.pdf (626.8Kb)
Metadata
Show full item record
Abstract
We consider the cost of meeting emissions reduction targets consistent with a G8 proposal of a 50 percent global reduction in emissions by 2050, and an Obama Administration proposal of an 80 percent reduction over this period. We apply the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA), modeling these two policy scenarios if met by applying a national cap-and-trade system, and compare results with an earlier EPPA analysis of reductions of this stringency. We also test results to alternative assumptions about program coverage, banking behavior, and cost of technology in the electric power sector. Two main messages emerge from the exercise. First, technology uncertainties have a huge effect on the generation mix but only a moderate effect on the emissions price and welfare cost of achieving the assumed targets. Measured in terms of changes in economic welfare, the economic cost of 80 percent reduction by 2050 is in the range of 2 to 3% by 2050, with CO2 prices between $48 and $67 in 2015 rising to between $190 and $266 by 2050. Second, implementation matters. When an idealized economy-wide cap-and-trade is replaced by coverage omitting some sectors, or if the credibility of long-term target is weak (limiting banking behavior) prices and welfare costs change substantially.
Description
Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).
Date issued
2009-04
URI
http://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=1965
http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/49850
Publisher
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
Citation
Report no. 173
Series/Report no.
;Report no. 173

Collections
  • Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Reports

Browse

All of DSpaceCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjectsThis CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjects

My Account

Login

Statistics

OA StatisticsStatistics by CountryStatistics by Department
MIT Libraries
PrivacyPermissionsAccessibilityContact us
MIT
Content created by the MIT Libraries, CC BY-NC unless otherwise noted. Notify us about copyright concerns.