Upper-ocean influences on hurricane intensification modeling

Abstract

Hurricane intensification modeling has been a difficult problem for the atmospheric science community. Complex models have been built to simulate the process, but with only a certain amount of success. A model developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel is much simpler compared to previous studies. The Emanuel model approaches hurricane intensification as an ocean-controlled process where the upper-ocean heat content limits intensification. It is shown that this ocean-based model can produce very accurate results when the true structure of the ocean can be determined. The Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX) provides an opportunity for the model to be tested through the use of satellite altimetry. Measurements of the mixed layer depth and upper-ocean heat content are incorporated into the model for Hurricanes Bret, Gert, Opal, Mitch and Dolly. This technique is shown to be quite reliable for many storms, especially in the Gulf of Mexico. Limitations are examined where this method breaks down and improvements are suggested for its development into a forecasting tool.