Assessments of long-term uranium supply availability
Name
554729661-MIT.pdf
Description
Full printable version
Size
5.98 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
ea1b91ebb8c63b71c51ed5b646fdf889
Author(s)
Zaterman, Daniel R
Advisor(s)
Richard K. Lester.
Date Issued
2009
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract
The future viability of nuclear power will depend on the long-term availability of uranium. A two-form uranium supply model was used to estimate the date at which peak production will occur. The model assumes a constant annual rate of production growth to the peak, and a fixed reserves-to-production ratio thereafter. For mid-range assumptions of reserves and production growth rates, production is estimated to peak in 2076. Additionally, a net-present-value (NPV) analysis was used to model annual uranium exploration investment as a function of historical discovery costs; historical discovery, development, and production lifetimes; spot uranium prices; and credit availability. When back-tested over the past 30 years, the model successfully 'predicted' annual investment rates. Finally, multiples analysis was applied to estimate Australia's undiscovered and speculative resources, which were found to be 447,500 tU and 2,237,400 tU, respectively. The results of these analyses suggest that higher prices, increased exploration, and the use of non-conventional sources of uranium can provide plentiful supplies for at least the next century.
Description
Thesis (S.B.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Nuclear Science and Engineering, 2009.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 57-58).
Subjects
Nuclear Science and Engineering.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering
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