Cost trends and government incentives in the California photovoltaics market, 2007-2008

Abstract

The focus of this thesis is to analyze cost trends and government incentives in the California PV market during 2007-2008. The data show that pre-rebate system costs increased in California during this time period and that this was driven by a surge in worldwide module cost. Systems employing thin film technology did not exhibit a downward impact on cost, which contradicts historical and technological expectations. Furthermore, the introduction of the California Solar Initiative's declining rebate structure had a limited effect on reducing system costs. Additional research is necessary to understand installer pricing behaviors, which seemed to negatively affect commercial buyers, and how to best capitalize on the strong effect of economies of scale that was present in the data. This may lead to improved mechanisms of cost reduction that can aid policymakers.