Capital appreciation potentials of Chinese residential market : identification of investment opportunities
Author(s)Wang, Philip Gin Shun; Qian, Jia
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Real Estate. Program in Real Estate Development.
William C. Wheaton.
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The mission of our thesis is to assist residential real estate investors and developers in making more systematic investment decisions when selecting Chinese cities. In particular, our thesis has three major objectives, (1) to understand the residential price appreciation with respect to economic growth among 35 core Chinese cities, (2) to understand the dynamics of the residential market fluctuation, and (3) to predict the residential market movement. Our models have suggested that the residential markets of Tier II Chinese cities shall outperform those of the other tiers in terms of capital appreciation under a sustainable economic growth condition, with Tier I Chinese cities experiencing the least collective growth. Interestingly, our models have suggested that historical performance is a relatively good indicator of medium-term performance, in terms of capital appreciation potentials, under an up-market cycle. Our results have indicated that the capital appreciation performance ranking of our 5-year prediction period to 2012 are relatively consistent with the capital appreciation performance ranking of the historical 9-year trend between 1999 and 2007. In particular, our top five cities with the highest capital appreciation for the 5-year period to 2012 are Xiamen, Ningbo, Nanchang, Taiyuan, and Fuzhou, respectively; in comparison, the top five cities with highest capital appreciation for the 9-year period to 2007 are Ningbo, Xiamen, Qingdao, Nanchang, and Xian, respectively.(cont.) In terms of residential market dynamics, our models have revealed that the increase in sales transaction volume, the decline in real prime rate, and the loose mortgage policy have all contributed to the overheating of the Chinese residential market in 2007. But as the monetary policy and lending standards tighten, the sales volume was curbed and prices lost its steam. We observed that the policy change was not the only cause to the slowdown in sales transaction volume, but also the continued sales price growth; in fact, the policy change was a cause of the over-heated market. If the current pattern continues and supported by favorable policy, we expect the market shall show signs of relief in 2010; however, if prices over-shoot in the coming months, the market performance may actually reverse.
Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real Estate , 2009.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 85).
DepartmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Real Estate. Program in Real Estate Development.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Center for Real Estate. Program in Real Estate Development.