Housing markets : Mexico

Abstract

What, When and Where to Develop? The purpose of this study is to help find the major areas of opportunity for housing development and production in Mexico. The thesis intends to help developers in their eternal quest for the right product, location and timing. The answer to these questions will not only help developers with decision making regarding housing projects, but will be helpful to the industry as a whole. It will help lending institutions determine which projects to finance and will be a valuable tool for local and federal governments in determining which cities and income levels or housing products need higher government subsidy or support. The number of housing units sold in Mexico in the last decade has almost quadrupled, yet market forecasts generated by institutions and developers seem negligible. A greater effort to assess the housing demand and deficit has been made by private institutions and government entities which finance most housing sales in the country, while developers seem only to go as far as is necessary to secure financing for their respective projects. This study provides an outlook of the housing markets in Mexico and includes an analysis of what is currently being done to measure and forecast housing demand. The thesis concludes with rigorous economics analysis intended to forecast markets through a Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model. The model uses 15 years of historical data on housing prices, inventories and sales with economic and demographic variables to create forecasts for seven cities representing each of the seven regions the country was segmented into for the study.