Secondary residential demand trends in contemporary Japan and North Asia
Author(s)
Lam, Michael M
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Other Contributors
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Real Estate. Program in Real Estate Development.
Advisor
Dennis Frenchman.
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This research paper attempts to address the opportunity and challenges for Vacation Residential Development in North Asia, with specific geographic focus on Japan first through an analysis of national and regional consumption, tourism and real estate trends, followed by examination of similar successful developments in the surrounding region and lastly, application of research findings to assess the feasibility for a vacation home development in Kanagawa (Japan), a prefecture filled with several coastal communities approximately thirty-five miles south west of Tokyo. The concept of vacation homes has not been as well received in Japan as in other developed regions, specifically Western Europe and North America. In the most recent housing survey conducted by the Japanese government, less than 1% of the housing stock could be considered as, "second dwellings" whilst in France and the US vacation homes make up roughly 10% and 3% (respectively) of the total housing stock. More recently in the past decade, there has been significant efforts made by both international and domestic developers to develop the vacation home market in the world's second largest economy. The hypothesis for this research is: demand for vacation residences in Japan will be driven by 1) the demographic shift within Japan, 2) emergence (and in some cases reemergence) of both the Japanese and surrounding regional Asian economies and 3) subsequently the large and growing concentration of high net worth individuals within the region. (cont.) This thesis engages qualitative research with quantitative analysis of the market and existing developments around the globe. Research findings are then used as inputs to assess what product type and operating model should be built to properly capture demand. The thesis may be considered the precursor to a more intensive quantitative research applying urban econometric models to determine exact demand both nationally and within specific micro markets. The thesis is presented with the assumption that the reader has a good understanding of the geography and the economic, socio and political conditions in Japan; and is written with a bias in favor of real estate development in Japan. Lastly, best efforts have been made to aggregate and use the most recent and available data, but in some cases industry and public sector reports are not released on an annual basis. With regards to forex conversion, the rate used throughout this research is USD 1=JPY 113, the monthly last price average between 2001.09 and 2009.5.
Description
Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real Estate , 2009. Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. Includes bibliographical references (p. 101-113).
Date issued
2009Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Real Estate. Program in Real Estate Development.; Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Real EstatePublisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Keywords
Center for Real Estate. Program in Real Estate Development.