What drives spacecraft innovation? : a quantitative analysis of communication satellite history

Abstract

The overall goal of this research is to develop a better understanding of how innovation can, and should, happen in the space sector. Part A: Towards an Empirical Measure of Spacecraft Innovation, frames the discussion of innovation in the space sector and creates a platform for future analysis. To accomplish this, it addresses three aspects of the task of measurement. First, it surveys several distinct literatures to establish precedence for defining a spacecraft innovation metric. Second, the conceptual trade-offs associated with adopting this principle in the context of communication satellites are elucidated and treated. By defining product boundaries along the dimensions of product scope and market transactions, three paradigms for measurement are proposed; namely, 1) the communication satellite enterprise; 2) the physical satellite; and 3) communication service. Third, under the constraints of historical data collection realities, next-best estimators are put forward as surrogates for the parameters required in implementing the proposed metrics. Based on these surrogates, the relative merits of each measurement paradigm are illustrated through sample analyses.

(cont.) Part B: Lessons from Communication Satellite History (1964-2006), captures the first detailed attempt to quantitatively analyze innovation in the space sector. Building on the communication satellite innovation metric (developed in Part A) and a spacecraft innovation framework (developed as part of ongoing work) Part B presents a preliminary model of communication satellite innovation. In addition to innovation being a function of the rate of performance normalized by price, spacecraft innovation is shown to be strongly influenced by characteristics of the customer-contractor contractual relationship. Specifically, DoD contracts tend to result in a lower level of innovation on average as compared to other customers and particular customer-contractor pairs perform differently and exhibit a second order relationship in time. No pair was observed to sustain better than average innovation in the long run.