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dc.contributor.authorGitiaux, Xavier
dc.contributor.authorReilly, John M.
dc.contributor.authorPaltsev, Sergey
dc.date.accessioned2011-10-17T18:17:06Z
dc.date.available2011-10-17T18:17:06Z
dc.date.issued2011-05
dc.identifier.urihttp://globalchange.mit.edu/pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=2154
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/66297
dc.descriptionAbstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).en_US
dc.description.abstractThe potential future role of biofuels has become an important topic in energy legislation as it is seen as a potential low carbon alternative to conventional fuels. Hence, future yield growth is an important topic from many perspectives, and given the extensions of the period over which data are available a re-evaluation of yields trends is in order. Our approach is to focus on time series analysis, and to improve upon past work by investigating yields of many major crops in many parts of the world. We also apply time series techniques that allow us to test for the persistence of a plateau pattern that has worried analysts, and that provide a better estimate of forecast uncertainty. The general conclusion from this time series analysis of yields is that casual observation or simple linear regression can lead to overconfidence in projections because of the failure to consider the likelihood of structural breaks.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors.en_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherMIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Changeen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries;Report no. 199
dc.rightsAn error occurred on the license name.en
dc.rights.uriAn error occurred getting the license - uri.en
dc.titleFuture Yield Growth: What Evidence from Historical Data?en_US
dc.typeTechnical Reporten_US
dc.identifier.citationReport no. 199en_US


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