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dc.contributor.advisorHerbert H. Einstein.en_US
dc.contributor.authorMoret, Yvonneen_US
dc.contributor.otherMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-11-01T19:53:03Z
dc.date.available2011-11-01T19:53:03Z
dc.date.copyright2011en_US
dc.date.issued2011en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/66853
dc.descriptionThesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2011.en_US
dc.descriptionCataloged from PDF version of thesis.en_US
dc.descriptionIncludes bibliographical references (p. 437-443).en_US
dc.description.abstractTransportation construction projects are often plagued by cost overruns and delays. Technical, economic-political, psychological, and legal causes explain the frequent underestimations. To counteract such underestimations, the author developed an innovative approach to capture cost and time uncertainty in rail line projects, and applied this to the construction of a new high speed rail line in Portugal. The construction of the four main types of structures in rail lines (tunnels, viaducts, cuts and embankments) is modeled bottom-up from the single activity to the entire rail line. Sub-networks of activities are combined in structure networks to model the rail line structures; in turn, the structure networks are organized in the construction network to represent the rail line. For the first time, three sources of uncertainty (variability in the construction process, correlations between the costs of repeated activities, and disruptive events) are modeled jointly at the level of the single activity. These uncertainties are propagated to the total construction cost and time through the combination of the individual activity costs and times. The Construction and Uncertainty Models are integrated in the Decision Aids for Tunneling (DAT), which have been extended beyond tunneling to consider different structures and different uncertainty types. Based on historical input data and expert estimations, the cost and time uncertainty in the construction of four alignments of the new Portuguese high speed rail line is simulated. The three sources of uncertainty cause different cost and time impacts depending on the type of structure suggesting structure specific mitigation measures. Most importantly, their cumulative impact causes significant increases in construction cost and time compared to the deterministic estimates: 58% in the construction cost of tunnels, and 94% in the construction time of cuts and embankments. The Construction and Uncertainty Models and their integrated implementation in the DAT provide transportation agencies with a modeling tool to tackle cost and time uncertainty in the construction of rail lines and other linear/networked infrastructure projects.en_US
dc.description.statementofresponsibilityby Yvonne Moret.en_US
dc.format.extent443 p.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherMassachusetts Institute of Technologyen_US
dc.rightsM.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission.en_US
dc.rights.urihttp://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582en_US
dc.subjectCivil and Environmental Engineering.en_US
dc.titleModeling cost and time uncertainty in rail line constructionen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.description.degreePh.D.en_US
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
dc.identifier.oclc758000057en_US


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