Managing uncertainty in new business development

Abstract

The basic premise of this thesis is that uncertainty creates opportunities and that dealing with uncertainty demands a structured and simple framework. Uncertainty has many different sources and for approaching issues with high level of uncertainty a manager should try to understand this sources in a structured way. This work I address the multiple issues involved in the formulation of strategies for the development of new businesses based on the core competencies of the firm and taking advantage of the environmental trends and opportunities. Relevant findings of different scholars and authors that have addressed development of new businesses, implications of diversification, management of uncertainty, and financial valuation are analyzed. It is proposed a framework to deal with uncertainty in a structured and simple way. For a case study, Sun Microsystems' Jini Technology was chosen, given that it represents a technological disruption generating high levels of uncertainty in the computing industry. It is a technology oriented to take advantage of the computing and communications infrastructure and to increase value for the customer. The proposed structured framework is applied to the case of study as an exercise to show a practical use in developing new business and to demonstrate its validity.