Modeling Renewable Energy Readiness: The UAE Context

Abstract

Modeling technology policy is becoming an increasingly important capability to steer states and societies toward sustainability. This paper presents a simulation-modeling approach to evaluate renewable energy readiness, that is, the ability to develop renewable energy, taking into account critical ecological, economic, governance, and institutional factors that generally shape energy policy. While the dynamics underlying shifts towards renewable energy are generic, we focus on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a counter-intuitive case. The UAE is a major oil rich and oil exporting country, with large untapped reserves. Yet it has made a policy decision to develop sources of renewable energy. The absence of basic institutional, managerial, and infrastructure requirements creates major barriers that must be surmounted if this policy is to be effectively pursued. For these and other reasons, the UAE serves as a "hard test" for the potentials of renewable energy and can eventually be used as a model for other oil exporting countries. The UAE has already made strides along a trajectory in trial and error ways. As such, it helps demonstrate in theory and practice the readiness for renewable energy-that can help articulate effective policy trajectories.