Resurrection of the Bombay trans-harbour link project by using Wheaton's monocentric models of urban land use

Abstract

BOMBAY TRANS-HARBOUR LINK PROJECT: A possible solution to Bombay's seemingly unsurmountable social problems. The primary idea behind this thesis is to present a new technique for the appraisal of large scale urban transportation projects which are envisaged to have a major impact on the surrounding physical and economic urban structure. The Bombay Trans-Harbour Link (BTHL) Project, a 16 kilometers long road bridge proposed by the Indian Planning Commission to connect the island city of Bombay and the surrounding mainland, was considered to be an excellent case study for demonstrating the application of this technique. This project would mean a major transportation investment for the Bombay Metropolitan Region. The investment is justified because it is envisaged to act as a catalyst to draw people from the island to the mainland. This would help reduce the existing acute congestion in the city of Bombay by securing more land mass and bringing this newly acquired land within convenient commuting time of the existing business district in the main city. Thus, the three essential features that the BTHL would perform are: 1. Open up new 'virgin' land for development and thus be an integral part of the process of decentralizing Bombay. 2. Form the 'connecting link' between the mainland and Bombay city, thus removing the only significant bottleneck to development, namely , the lack of adequate communication between the island and the mainland. 3. Once built, the BTHL would open up vast unused areas on the mainland that would in all probability attract other investments and improvements or requirements necessary for development which, once the BTHL is constructed, would be relatively easy to meet. In this case, transportation infrastructure such as the BTHL becomes almost a prerequisite, though by no means a guarantee, of economic development. The benefits would be long-term ones, and in fact in the initial time period after the investment, traffic growth could be much larger than the corresponding anticipated growth in income. In these early stages, the ratio of capital to output could well be extremely high. Thus, in view of the anticipated strategic role of the BTHL and the large investment required, a careful appraisal of the costs and benefits of the project is particularly important. It is equally important to set forth the investment criteria which would be used in deciding whether or not to undertake the project. The engineering feasibility of the project as well as its total cost has been established by Messrs. Peter Fraenkel and Consultants. The Project is estimated to cost US $110.41 million in 1990 constant prices. This thesis emphasises the fact that the methods of evaluation used to date for appraising the benefits of transport investments suffer from the application of mistaken techniques and from inadequate analyses of economic externalities and linkages. The first part of the thesis partly includes a description of these methodologies and a critique of each of them. The second half of the thesis is written from the viewpoint of a consultant to the Indian Planning Commission under the auspices of Tata Economic Consultancy Services, entrusted with the task of seeing whether an investment in the BTHL today would be justified or not, and if so on what grounds. I have endeavoured to present a different methodology for the appraisal of the BTHL Project This new approach is based upon the application of monocentric models of urban land use to theories of metropolitan spatial development, a technique developed in its most recent form by Professor William C.