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Modeling social response to the spread of an infectious disease

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dc.contributor.advisor Natasha Markuzon and Marta Gonzalez. en_US Evans, Jane A. (Jane Amanda) en_US
dc.contributor.other Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Operations Research Center. en_US 2012-09-11T17:32:46Z 2012-09-11T17:32:46Z 2012 en_US 2012 en_US
dc.description Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Operations Research Center, 2012. en_US
dc.description This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. en_US
dc.description Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis. en_US
dc.description Includes bibliographical references (p. 85-88). en_US
dc.description.abstract With the globalization of culture and economic trade, it is increasingly important not only to detect outbreaks of infectious disease early, but also to anticipate the social response to the disease. In this thesis, we use social network analysis and data mining methods to model negative social response (NSR), where a society demonstrates strain associated with a disease. Specifically, we apply real world biosurveillance data on over 11,000 initial events to: 1) describe how negative social response spreads within an outbreak, and 2) analytically predict negative social response to an outbreak. In the first approach, we developed a meta-model that describes the interrelated spread of disease and NSR over a network. This model is based on both a susceptible-infective- recovered (SIR) epidemiology model and a social influence model. It accurately captured the collective behavior of a complex epidemic, providing insights on the volatility of social response. In the second approach, we introduced a multi-step joint methodology to improve the detection and prediction of rare NSR events. The methodology significantly reduced the incidence of false positives over a more conventional supervised learning model. We found that social response to the spread of an infectious disease is predictable, despite the seemingly random occurrence of these events. Together, both approaches offer a framework for expanding a society's critical biosurveillance capability. en_US
dc.description.statementofresponsibility by Jane A. Evans. en_US
dc.format.extent 88 p. en_US
dc.language.iso eng en_US
dc.publisher Massachusetts Institute of Technology en_US
dc.rights M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission. en_US
dc.rights.uri en_US
dc.subject Operations Research Center. en_US
dc.title Modeling social response to the spread of an infectious disease en_US
dc.type Thesis en_US S.M. en_US
dc.contributor.department Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Operations Research Center. en_US
dc.identifier.oclc 807216999 en_US

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