Driving change : evaluating strategies to control automotive energy demand growth in China

Abstract

As the number of vehicles in China has relentlessly grown in the past decade, the energy demand, fuel demand and greenhouse gas emissions associated with these vehicles have kept pace. This thesis presents a model to project future energy demand, fuel demand and carbon dioxide emissions for the Chinese light duty vehicle fleet. Results indicate that China can offset rapid vehicle energy demand growth with reductions in fuel consumption and new vehicle technologies. These reference scenario results indicate that future light duty vehicle energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions will peak below 400 mtoe and 1700 mmt carbon dioxide, respectively. In addition, a scenario based sensitivity analysis reveals that vehicle stock, vehicle fuel consumption and vehicle fleet electrification are the most significant drivers in determining future light duty vehicle energy demand, fuel demand and carbon dioxide emissions. The Chinese government is concerned with these trends. In a complementary analysis, I investigate existing government policy strategies that may affect future automotive energy demand. I find that policy strategies are fairly well aligned with the significant drivers to reduce automotive energy demand. However, I also find that national government policies are often not implemented as intended at the local government level. Finally, I analyze current domestic and joint venture brand vehicle technology, where I find that domestic car technology lags joint venture car technology.