A system dynamics model for the diffusion of a new technology

Abstract

It is often difficult for companies producing new technologies to predict the acceptance pattern (or diffusion pattern) for the new technology in the marketplace. The expected diffusion pattern is important because it affects and is affected by the production, financial, sales and distribution strategies for the new technology, as well as decisions related to marketing and technical development. It is also useful if the projection of technology acceptance offers the firm insight into the factors that drive acceptance and the factors that contribute to rejection of the technology in the marketplace. This thesis develops a system dynamics model for the diffusion of a new medical technology. At the model's core is a general theory of medical technology emergence proposed by Dr. Jack Homer in his 1983 Ph.D. thesis entitled "A Dynamic Model for Analyzing the Emergence of New Medical Technologies." By parameterizing Dr. Homer's general system dynamics model to suit the new technology case, it is hoped that the model will give rise to a greater understanding of the factors relevant to diffusing the technology, as well as lead to more informed managerial decision making as progress is made with the technology.