A more comprehensive life cycle cost analysis of pavement materials alternatives
Author(s)
Dunn, William Colby
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Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Materials Science and Engineering.
Advisor
Joel P. Clark.
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Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is a commonly used tool in analyzing the economic viability of highway construction investments. The initial and life-cycle materials costs associated with highway construction involve a high level of uncertainty and therefore warrant extensive and dynamic cost analysis. These uncertainties derive from extensive materials usage costs. Despite the advantages of implementing a probabilistic approach to cost analysis, many state departments of transportation (DOTs) continue to employ a deterministic model, thereby misjudging, and often altogether neglecting the underlying uncertainty and risks. The goals of this paper are twofold: first, to validate forecasting as a viable method to predict future materials' prices, and second, to explore economies of scale as a potential driver of uncertainty. The paper will then apply these results to a case study methodology, looking at a comparative LCCA of two materials alternative, asphalt vs. concrete pavement designs for two states: Florida and Colorado. Endeavoring in this light, the author has characterized uncertainty in a way that will be comprehensible by practitioners. This research has successfully validated out-of-sample forecasting as a superior method of forecasting materials prices, characterized uncertainty related to project quantity, and delivered results using a relatable case study approach.
Description
Thesis: S.B., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Materials Science and Engineering, June 2014. Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. "May 2013." Includes bibliographical references (pages 43-45).
Date issued
2014Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Materials Science and EngineeringPublisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Keywords
Materials Science and Engineering.