A longitudinal analysis of passenger travel disruptions in the National Air Transportation System

Abstract

Recent research on the U.S. National Air Transportation System has shown that approximately 50% of delays suffered by passengers are a result of passenger travel disruptions in the form of either flight cancellations or missed connections. There exists significant variation in the propensity for disruptions across airports and carriers, based on key factors such as scheduling practices, network structures, and passenger connections. In this thesis, we conduct a longitudinal analysis of passenger travel disruptions in the U.S. over the 2006 - 2010 calendar years and analyze the trends in, and impacts of, various scheduling and operational factors across the years. We illustrate the interdependencies of carrier-related factors and airport-related factors, and the resulting impact on passenger travel disruptions. In our analysis, we use passenger travel data spanning five years. This passenger travel data is estimated from publicly available data sources using a methodology previously developed to disaggregate passenger demand data. We find that across the years, flight cancellations, which are the leading cause for passenger disruptions, vary substantially across carriers even when baseline variability across airports is accounted for. Both passenger and operational considerations play a very significant role in cancellation decisions. We explore the effect of load factors and flight frequency on cancellation rates across the carriers and determine that the level of impact of these two factors varies across carrier types, with the cancellation decisions among the regional carriers being influenced more by load factor considerations than by flight frequency. Much of the variability in missed connections at the airport and carrier level can be explained by the flight delays observed. However, an airline's scheduling practices are also a critical factor that affects the rate of misconnections. Highly banked (peaked) flight schedules reduce passenger connection times and result in higher misconnection rates. We find that significant trends and events in the aviation industry, including the Valentine's Day Storm of February 14, 2007, the demise of Aloha Airlines in 2008, the trend towards capacity discipline among legacy carriers after 2008, and Delta and Northwest Airlines' merger in 2010 have had a significant impact on both cancellations and misconnections.