A planning paradigm for electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa : a case study of Tanzania

Abstract

In Sub-Saharan Africa, a lack of clean electricity generation sources, poor electricity access and low levels of electricity consumption are profoundly stifling sustainable development. This thesis presents a specialized investigation, in context of Tanzania, of the primary paradigmatic approaches to electrification - centralized, large-scale grid systems conceived through least-cost-planning; and decentralized, small-scale off-grid systems administered through entrepreneurial pilots. My thesis offers a new paradigm, a mid-scale opportunistic and pluralistic planning paradigm, to address the dynamic economic, social, environmental and political issues that have constrained the efficacy of the extant approaches to electrification. The paradigm draws upon my investigative understanding of the critical theoretical threads that inform the complex fabric of electricity sector development - energy economics, social science, conceptualized and technical planning, and climate change theories. Additionally, the midscale opportunistic and pluralistic planning paradigm weaves in my practical understanding of the various resources that are currently available and can be leveraged to advance electrification, particularly for communities within isolated rural regions. Using Tanzania as a case study, the paradigm proposes a new way to think about and actualize a sustainable development path towards electrification in Sub-Saharan African countries that are experiencing rapid changes in macro and micro-economies, population demography and migration, and signs of climate change.