Technology maturity analysis for assessing capacity and schedule risk of future automation projects

Abstract

The need to improve risk assessment methods for automation projects within United States manufacturers exists due to a shift toward increased in factory automation stemming from industry pressure to reduce manufacturing costs and increase production rates. This study explores the hypothesis that a risk assessment method, based on technology maturity analysis, can be used to reduce the time to decision, reduce the influence of personal bias, and improve the estimation of risk impact when evaluating proposed automation systems. The risk assessment method is based on the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) framework, coupled with a mathematical simulation of the manufacturing process. During the pilot implementation, a team of evaluators gathered data to create a process simulation, assessed the TRLs of automation proposals, and analyzed the risk of each proposal. After concluding the pilot, the evaluation team was interviewed to determine the success of the risk assessment method. The interviews revealed that the method resulted in a faster time to decision and improved estimations of risk, but failed to significantly reduce the influence of personal bias during the evaluation process.