Reducing forward buying through derivatives

Abstract

This thesis examines the potential reduction of speculative inventory, commonly known as "forward buying", through the use of derivatives options, similar to those used on commodities exchanges. The reinforcing cycle of overbuying on promotion, which leads companies and industries into inescapable cycles of capacity excess & shortage, is explored and a framework for breaking free through the sale of call options on promoted products is proposed. Further speculation on the relevance of derivative instruments to Internet Exchanges and Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) is advanced.