Diffusion of new technology vehicles

Abstract

The evaluation for the competency of New Technology Vehicles, such as Fuel Cell vehicles, Hybrid vehicles and Current vehicles with incrementally improved combustion engines are examined as well as fuel systems that support those power train alternatives. The competency for each alternative is measured through an economic instrument in terms of cost of power train alternatives, cost of fuel alternatives, and environmental factors. Careful observations imply that a fuel cell with a direct hydrogen system will be the most promising power train in the near future and that we are finally on the verge of entering the diffusion process. The analysis deployed here shows how the choice offsets its internal "the chicken or the egg" dilemma by selective manufacturing equipment and transportation infrastructure that support the power train. In addition, detail investigations are described that clarifies the uncertainties accompanied in developing and commercializing the power train. Finally, insights are presented regarding how a green penalty significantly enhances the diffusion process.