Retail sales and retail real estate : an economic analysis of the trends in neighborhood and community shopping center market

Abstract

An economic analysis was carried out to determine trends and patterns in the neighborhood and community shopping center market. Economic analysis was performed to determine whether the current retail market is overbuilt. This analysis was based on sales performance of goods common to shopping centers, income per square foot performance of shopping center Real Estate Investment Trusts, and the movement of national sales as a share of personal income. The results from a sales per square foot test of the retail market revealed that the relationship of sales per square foot is declining. Upon further analysis, the changes in sales per square foot over the changes in square footage reveal an inconsistency with the conclusion and that the retail market may not be overbuilt. Further, a sample of shopping center Real Estate Investment Trusts reveal that they are currently outperforming their respective markets on an income per square foot basis. Finally, results from the national sales as a percentage of personal income test conclude that purchases as a share of personal income have fallen more slowly in recent years.