Prediction of Terminal-Area Weather Penetration Based on Operational Factors

Abstract

Convective weather is known to reduce airspace capacity, but the extent of the impact is not well understood. Understanding how weather affects terminal area capacity is essential for quantification of the uncertainty in weather forecasts and, in particular, the degree of accuracy of the forecast. With this foundation, the question emerges as to the feasibility and possible effectiveness of an optimal mitigation strategy. Research has focused on the overlap between convective weather cells and air routes but has not sufficiently analyzed the differences that arise from factors such as aircraft types and pilot behavior. This paper examines the interactions between convective weather and aircraft trajectories in the arrival airspace surrounding Chicago O'Hare International Airport in Illinois. Case studies based on operational data are used to determine potentially relevant operational factors, and a predictive model is built with these factors to forecast whether a flight will pass through hazardous weather. The results of the analysis suggest that these operational factors are secondary to the weather itself in determining whether a pilot will deviate from or penetrate hazardous weather.