Identification of leading indicators for producibility risk in early-stage aerospace product development

Abstract

Producibility is an emergent property of product development and manufacturing systems that encapsulates quality, product compliance, cost, and schedule. Detailed product definition and process variation have traditionally been a focus area for understanding risk for producibility losses. It is proposed for this investigation that while assumptions inherent to product configuration and process selection can significantly impact producibility, producibility risk and realized producibility losses are primarily indicated by organizational design assumptions and associated phased implementation of programmatic governance. This premise is systematically explored through an assessment of organizational dynamics and product development performance within Aerospace Corporation X. An extension of the hazard analysis technique System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) is invoked for leading indicator derivation from assumptions underlying causality of inadequate producibility control. Indicator integration with risk management processes is outlined, and a combination of expert-assessments and quality loss correlation are used to validate indicator significance. As a result of these investigations, it is concluded that functional isolation, phased capability and control, and differing performance incentives are central to producibility loss. In addition, these factors are deemed to be more important than product feature-based sources of producibility risk. Extension of STPA for indicator identification is validated and recommendations are provided for implementation of a leading indicator monitoring program.