Analysis of the relationship between size and returns in private equity

Abstract

We study in this paper the relationship between the size of funds and the related performance in the Private Equity industry. We show that for top quartile funds, an increase in size is associated with a decrease in performance. Furthermore, we show that this increase in fund size is also associated with an increase in performance of the lowest performing funds, leading to a less volatile spectrum of returns for larger fund sizes. Following this first analysis, we use System Dynamics techniques to visually represent the industry and hypothesize that these decrease in returns are led by manager's lack of focus, the increased competition for these deals and an increase in risk-taking. The main driver we identify as responsible for this increase in fund size over the past decade is due to the increase in management fees in absolute value. Finally, we discuss potential strategies enabling fund managers to balance this desire to increase management fees whilst protecting the high returns sought by Limited Partners investing in their funds.