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Themistoklis P. Sapsis. Wan, Zhong Yi, Ph. D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Computation for Design and Optimization Program. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Computation for Design and Optimization Program 2016-09-30T19:35:55Z 2016-09-30T19:35:55Z 2016 2016 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/104565 958660378 Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Computation for Design and Optimization Program, 2016. Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. Includes bibliographical references (pages 93-97). In this thesis work, we formulate a reduced-order data-driven strategy for the efficient probabilistic forecast of complex high-dimensional dynamical systems for which data-streams are available. The first step of this method consists of the reconstruction of the vector field in a reduced-order subspace of interest using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). GPR simultaneously allows for the reconstruction of the vector field, as well as the estimation of the local uncertainty. The latter is due to i) the local interpolation error and ii) due to the truncation of the high-dimensional phase space and it analytically quantified in terms of the GPR hyperparameters. The second step involves the formulation of stochastic models that explicitly take into account the reconstructed dynamics and their uncertainty. For regions of the attractor where the training data points are not sufficiently dense for GPR to be effective an adaptive blended scheme is formulated that guarantees correct statistical steady state properties. We examine the effectiveness of the proposed method to complex systems including the Lorenz 63, Lorenz 96, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky, as well as a prototype climate model. We also study the performance of the proposed approach as the intrinsic dimensionality of the system attractor increases in highly turbulent regimes. by Zhong Yi Wan. S.M. 97 pages eng Massachusetts Institute of Technology M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission. http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582 Computation for Design and Optimization Program. Reduced-space Gaussian process regression forecast for nonlinear dynamical systems Thesis application/pdf false Publication unknown unknown <Publication xmlns="https://www.openaire.eu/cerif-profile/1.1/" id="bd71084d-37ea-4d96-9989-75ae7ee9f166"> <Type xmlns="https://www.openaire.eu/cerif-profile/vocab/COAR_Publication_Types">http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_1843</Type> <Language>eng</Language> <Title>Reduced-space Gaussian process regression forecast for nonlinear dynamical systems</Title> <PublishedIn> <Publication> </Publication> </PublishedIn> <PublicationDate>2016</PublicationDate> <Authors> <Author> <DisplayName>Wan, Zhong Yi, Ph. D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology</DisplayName> <Affiliation> <OrgUnit> </OrgUnit> </Affiliation> </Author> </Authors> <Editors> </Editors> <Publishers> <Publisher> <DisplayName>Massachusetts Institute of Technology</DisplayName> <OrgUnit /> </Publisher> </Publishers> <License>http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582</License> <Keyword>Computation for Design and Optimization Program.</Keyword> <Abstract>In this thesis work, we formulate a reduced-order data-driven strategy for the efficient probabilistic forecast of complex high-dimensional dynamical systems for which data-streams are available. The first step of this method consists of the reconstruction of the vector field in a reduced-order subspace of interest using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). GPR simultaneously allows for the reconstruction of the vector field, as well as the estimation of the local uncertainty. The latter is due to i) the local interpolation error and ii) due to the truncation of the high-dimensional phase space and it analytically quantified in terms of the GPR hyperparameters. The second step involves the formulation of stochastic models that explicitly take into account the reconstructed dynamics and their uncertainty. For regions of the attractor where the training data points are not sufficiently dense for GPR to be effective an adaptive blended scheme is formulated that guarantees correct statistical steady state properties. We examine the effectiveness of the proposed method to complex systems including the Lorenz 63, Lorenz 96, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky, as well as a prototype climate model. We also study the performance of the proposed approach as the intrinsic dimensionality of the system attractor increases in highly turbulent regimes.</Abstract> <Access xmlns="http://purl.org/coar/access_right" > </Access> </Publication>