2026-09-19T06:12:51Zhttps://dspace.mit.edu/server/oai/requestoai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/423952022-01-13T07:54:28Zcom_1721.1_7582com_1721.1_7581col_1721.1_131023
Jerry Hausman.
Díez-Amigo, Sandro
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Economics.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics
2008-09-03T15:32:10Z
2008-09-03T15:32:10Z
2008
2008
http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/42395
236207806
Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 2008.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 22).
Whether or not the Madrid March 11th 2004 terrorist attacks affected the outcome of the Spanish general elections three days later has been the source of great controversy in the last years. This paper analyzes Spanish electoral data for the 2000 and 2004 Congressional elections, comparing the marginal effects of the proportion of voters who voted before the elections (and therefore, before the bombings in 2004) on the voting pattern in both years. A linear approach finds mild evidence that bombs undermined support for the incumbent conservative party and increased the share of the vote for the opposition socialists, similar to previous findings by Montalvo (2006) using a natural experiment design. A non-linear approach using binomial and multinomial logit models is not successful and yields no conclusive indications on how the attacks affected the outcome of the elections.
by Sandro Díez-Amigo.
S.M.
34 p.
eng
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582
Economics.
Bombs and ballots : estimating the effect of the Madrid bombings on the March 2004 general elections in Spain
Estimating the effect of the Madrid bombings on the March 2004 general elections in Spain
Thesis
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<Abstract>Whether or not the Madrid March 11th 2004 terrorist attacks affected the outcome of the Spanish general elections three days later has been the source of great controversy in the last years. This paper analyzes Spanish electoral data for the 2000 and 2004 Congressional elections, comparing the marginal effects of the proportion of voters who voted before the elections (and therefore, before the bombings in 2004) on the voting pattern in both years. A linear approach finds mild evidence that bombs undermined support for the incumbent conservative party and increased the share of the vote for the opposition socialists, similar to previous findings by Montalvo (2006) using a natural experiment design. A non-linear approach using binomial and multinomial logit models is not successful and yields no conclusive indications on how the attacks affected the outcome of the elections.</Abstract>
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