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David Marks. Kock, Beaudry E. (Beaudry Evan) Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering 2009-01-26T22:00:54Z 2009-01-26T22:00:54Z 2008 2008 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/44199 269363803 Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2008. This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. Includes bibliographical references (p. 186-192). The Basins-At-Risk theory formulates relations between institutional capacity in a basin and the level of water conflict in that basin, suggesting that higher levels of institutional capacity will lead to reduced levels of water conflict in a given system. I test the substance of this theory using comparative, simulation-based analysis of water resources systems in the USA and Spain. I determine whether, given two artificial societies experiencing water conflict, expanding institutional capacity would indeed lead to reduced conflict levels. I develop and apply two agent-based models of society and hydrology: one for Albacete, Spain, and the other for the Snake River, eastern Idaho,USA. Each model incorporates essential elements of the regional society: real world actors are translated into proactive deliberative agents using a BDI framework; the hydrology/geology is represented either through use of pre-existing models, or basic hydrologic simulation; economic, societal and other dynamics are represented through additional databases and agent rule bases. I apply the models experimentally to explore the societal effects of adding an additional institution to the existing water resources management institutions: ground water banking, a new set of rules for agents to interact with their hydrologic system. I run both models over historical and projected time periods, testing out different scenarios of variation in internal and external agent environment to explore the detailed dynamics of each system. Results and analysis suggest that institutional capacity and water conflict dynamics are strongly related, but that the direction of influence can vary. I identify critical elements of the design of ground water banking institutions, when considering their potential success in mitigating conflict. (cont.) I also investigate the possibilities of engineering a universally portable sociohydrologic agent, and discover that while the concepts of the chosen cognitive architecture may be portable, it is effectively impossible to guarantee a fully portable technical implementation. by Beaudry E. Kock. S.M. 192 p. eng Massachusetts Institute of Technology M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission. http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582 Civil and Environmental Engineering. Agent-based models of socio-hydrological systems for exploring the institutional dynamics of water resources conflict Thesis application/pdf Publication unknown unknown <Publication xmlns="https://www.openaire.eu/cerif-profile/1.1/" id="640d28da-ca01-4e38-b928-6ba143362479"> <Type xmlns="https://www.openaire.eu/cerif-profile/vocab/COAR_Publication_Types">http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_1843</Type> <Language>eng</Language> <Title>Agent-based models of socio-hydrological systems for exploring the institutional dynamics of water resources conflict</Title> <PublishedIn> <Publication> </Publication> </PublishedIn> <PublicationDate>2008</PublicationDate> <Authors> <Author> <DisplayName>Kock, Beaudry E. (Beaudry Evan)</DisplayName> <Affiliation> <OrgUnit> </OrgUnit> </Affiliation> </Author> </Authors> <Editors> </Editors> <Publishers> <Publisher> <DisplayName>Massachusetts Institute of Technology</DisplayName> <OrgUnit /> </Publisher> </Publishers> <License>http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582</License> <Keyword>Civil and Environmental Engineering.</Keyword> <Abstract>The Basins-At-Risk theory formulates relations between institutional capacity in a basin and the level of water conflict in that basin, suggesting that higher levels of institutional capacity will lead to reduced levels of water conflict in a given system. I test the substance of this theory using comparative, simulation-based analysis of water resources systems in the USA and Spain. I determine whether, given two artificial societies experiencing water conflict, expanding institutional capacity would indeed lead to reduced conflict levels. I develop and apply two agent-based models of society and hydrology: one for Albacete, Spain, and the other for the Snake River, eastern Idaho,USA. Each model incorporates essential elements of the regional society: real world actors are translated into proactive deliberative agents using a BDI framework; the hydrology/geology is represented either through use of pre-existing models, or basic hydrologic simulation; economic, societal and other dynamics are represented through additional databases and agent rule bases. I apply the models experimentally to explore the societal effects of adding an additional institution to the existing water resources management institutions: ground water banking, a new set of rules for agents to interact with their hydrologic system. I run both models over historical and projected time periods, testing out different scenarios of variation in internal and external agent environment to explore the detailed dynamics of each system. Results and analysis suggest that institutional capacity and water conflict dynamics are strongly related, but that the direction of influence can vary. I identify critical elements of the design of ground water banking institutions, when considering their potential success in mitigating conflict.</Abstract> <Abstract>(cont.) I also investigate the possibilities of engineering a universally portable sociohydrologic agent, and discover that while the concepts of the chosen cognitive architecture may be portable, it is effectively impossible to guarantee a fully portable technical implementation.</Abstract> <Access xmlns="http://purl.org/coar/access_right" > </Access> </Publication>