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William C. Wheaton. Cason, Brian (Brian Paul) Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Real Estate. Program in Real Estate Development. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Real Estate. Program in Real Estate Development. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Real Estate 2011-04-04T21:20:25Z 2011-04-04T21:20:25Z 2010 2010 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/62135 707727966 Thesis (S.M. in Real Estate Development)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real Estate , 2010. Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. Includes bibliographical references (p. 79-80). How can volatility as well as other dynamics and characteristics in hotel market fundamentals affecting risk be better understood? This paper explores that fundamental question along with other more specific questions that naturally follow: What are the markets and hotel sectors that exhibit the most volatility in RevPAR, and its various components: occupancy, ADR, absorption and completions? How can markets be characterized as more supply driven or demand driven? How can market revenue metrics be characterized as rate or occupancy driven? What determines the variations in these metrics? What markets behave similarly? What do these findings mean in terms of various risk management practices? This paper develops a model for the systematic analysis of hotel markets based on observed trends in historical data. The paper first calculates measures of volatility. It then develops a model to characterize markets based on which fundamentals play a larger role in hotel market dynamics. It then provides a further comparison of markets based on which exhibit similar movements in RevPAR. The findings then are analyzed for their meaning in terms of risk in hotel markets. Finally, the findings are interpreted to reach conclusions about the nature and determinants of volatility in hotel markets, and how to better mitigate these risks in portfolio selection. by Brian Cason. S.M. in Real Estate Development 80 p. eng Massachusetts Institute of Technology M.I.T. theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed from this source for any purpose, but reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission. See provided URL for inquiries about permission. http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582 Center for Real Estate. Program in Real Estate Development. Volatility of hotel market fundamentals and the determinants of variations between markets Thesis application/pdf false Publication unknown unknown <Publication xmlns="https://www.openaire.eu/cerif-profile/1.1/" id="e554762d-303b-4bcc-a1ec-dff62e36a887"> <Type xmlns="https://www.openaire.eu/cerif-profile/vocab/COAR_Publication_Types">http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_1843</Type> <Language>eng</Language> <Title>Volatility of hotel market fundamentals and the determinants of variations between markets</Title> <PublishedIn> <Publication> </Publication> </PublishedIn> <PublicationDate>2010</PublicationDate> <Authors> <Author> <DisplayName>Cason, Brian (Brian Paul)</DisplayName> <Affiliation> <OrgUnit> </OrgUnit> </Affiliation> </Author> </Authors> <Editors> </Editors> <Publishers> <Publisher> <DisplayName>Massachusetts Institute of Technology</DisplayName> <OrgUnit /> </Publisher> </Publishers> <License>http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582</License> <Keyword>Center for Real Estate. Program in Real Estate Development.</Keyword> <Abstract>How can volatility as well as other dynamics and characteristics in hotel market fundamentals affecting risk be better understood? This paper explores that fundamental question along with other more specific questions that naturally follow: What are the markets and hotel sectors that exhibit the most volatility in RevPAR, and its various components: occupancy, ADR, absorption and completions? How can markets be characterized as more supply driven or demand driven? How can market revenue metrics be characterized as rate or occupancy driven? What determines the variations in these metrics? What markets behave similarly? What do these findings mean in terms of various risk management practices? This paper develops a model for the systematic analysis of hotel markets based on observed trends in historical data. The paper first calculates measures of volatility. It then develops a model to characterize markets based on which fundamentals play a larger role in hotel market dynamics. It then provides a further comparison of markets based on which exhibit similar movements in RevPAR. The findings then are analyzed for their meaning in terms of risk in hotel markets. Finally, the findings are interpreted to reach conclusions about the nature and determinants of volatility in hotel markets, and how to better mitigate these risks in portfolio selection.</Abstract> <Access xmlns="http://purl.org/coar/access_right" > </Access> </Publication>