2026-09-20T04:04:20Zhttps://dspace.mit.edu/server/oai/requestoai:dspace.mit.edu:1721.1/784842026-06-06T01:06:18Zcom_1721.1_7582com_1721.1_7581col_1721.1_131023
C. Robert Kenley and Deborah Nightingale.
El-Khoury, Bernard
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Technology and Policy Program.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division
2013-04-12T19:28:38Z
2013-04-12T19:28:38Z
2012
2012
http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/78484
836717373
Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2012.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 142-148).
Many government agencies have adopted the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) scale to help improve technology development management under ever increasing cost, schedule, and complexity constraints. Many TRL-based cost and schedule models have been developed to monitor technology maturation, mitigate program risk, characterize TRL transition times, or model schedule and cost risk for individual technologies as well technology systems and portfolios. In this thesis, we develop a 4-level classification of TRL models based on the often-implicit assumptions they make. For each level, we clarify the assumption, we list all supporting theoretical and empirical evidence, and then we use the same assumption to propose alternative or improved models whenever possible. Our results include a justification of the GAO's recommendations on TRL, two new methodologies for robust estimation of transition variable medians and for forecasting TRL transition variables using historical data, and a set of recommendations for TRL-based regression models.
by Bernard El-Khoury.
S.M. in Technology and Policy
163 p.
eng
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
M.I.T. theses are protected by
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http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582
Engineering Systems Division.
Technology and Policy Program.
Analytic framework for TRL-based cost and schedule models
Analytic framework for Technology Readiness Level-based cost and schedule models
Thesis
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<Abstract>Many government agencies have adopted the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) scale to help improve technology development management under ever increasing cost, schedule, and complexity constraints. Many TRL-based cost and schedule models have been developed to monitor technology maturation, mitigate program risk, characterize TRL transition times, or model schedule and cost risk for individual technologies as well technology systems and portfolios. In this thesis, we develop a 4-level classification of TRL models based on the often-implicit assumptions they make. For each level, we clarify the assumption, we list all supporting theoretical and empirical evidence, and then we use the same assumption to propose alternative or improved models whenever possible. Our results include a justification of the GAO's recommendations on TRL, two new methodologies for robust estimation of transition variable medians and for forecasting TRL transition variables using historical data, and a set of recommendations for TRL-based regression models.</Abstract>
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